“How’s the market?”
I get asked this at least ten times a week. At barbecues, in intake meetings, by candidates trying to decide whether now is the moment to jump. And everyone wants a one-word answer: good or bad.
Here’s the problem. The honest answer is neither. The NZ market right now isn’t good or bad, it’s weird. And if you’re making hiring or career decisions based on the headlines alone, you’re reading it wrong.
The headlines say bleak
Unemployment sat at 5.3% in the March quarter, down a whisker from December’s near-decade high, but still 163,000 Kiwis looking for work (Stats NZ). Youth unemployment is genuinely rough, graduates are describing the job hunt as “depressing and disheartening,” and in Auckland and Wellington, some roles are pulling 100+ applications. Add an election year, a fuel crisis nobody had on their 2026 bingo card, and business confidence that could charitably be described as “cautious,” and you’d be forgiven for assuming everything has ground to a halt.
Except it hasn’t
Here’s the number that doesn’t make the headlines: more than 84% of NZ employers plan to recruit this year (HRD Market Report 2026). Job ads are up. Applications are up. And in one of the stranger stats I’ve seen in a while, job seekers are currently more confident than the employers hiring them, 57% versus 46%.
Sit with that for a second. The people supposedly at the mercy of a tough market are more optimistic than the people holding the jobs.
Churn… that’s the story of 2026
The dominant driver of hiring right now isn’t growth; it’s replacement. In Auckland, 40% of hiring is backfilling someone who left. Businesses aren’t expanding their teams; they’re plugging holes.
And why are the holes appearing? Not money, mostly. The research this year keeps landing on the same answer: people are leaving because of culture, because they feel undervalued, because they can’t see a path forward. Salary matters, with wages growing at 2% against inflation of 3.1%, staying put literally means going backwards, but it’s rarely the whole story anymore.
In other words: the market isn’t creating jobs. Unhappy employees are.
What this means if you’re hiring
Two things, and neither is comfortable.
First: your vacancy probably exists because someone, somewhere, didn’t keep a good person. Maybe that someone is you.
Before you brief the role, it’s worth asking the awkward question: why did the last person leave, and would the next person leave for the same reason?
Second: the “perfect candidate” strategy is quietly costing you a fortune. In a churn market, the best people are moving fast and choosing carefully. Hold out six months for the unicorn, and you’ll pay for it in overtime, burnout, and the very culture problems that started this cycle. The candidate who’s 80% there and hungry to grow is more available, more loyal, and often better in eighteen months than the pedigree hire you waited half a year for.
What this means if you’re looking
The competition is real. Application volumes are brutal, and “spray and pray” has never worked less. But confidence isn’t misplaced; movement is happening, employers are hiring, and the ones worth working for are increasingly aware that vague answers about flexibility and progression are deal-breakers. Be deliberate. Ask the hard questions in the interview. A market like this rewards people who know what they’re actually looking for.
The weird market is still a market
Yes, election years make decision-making slower.
Yes, global uncertainty makes everyone twitchy.
But the labour market doesn’t stop just because the economy is flat, people still resign, retire, relocate, and get restless. Hiring decisions might be more drawn out this year, but they’re still being made.
So the next time someone asks me “how’s the market?” this is the answer.
Not good. Not bad. Weird.
Busy in ways the headlines miss, quiet in ways the optimists gloss over, and absolutely unforgiving of employers who treat 2026 like it’s 2022.
What are you seeing out there? Does “weird” match your experience, or is your corner of the market telling a different story?
First published in Sarah’s LinkedIn newsletter, Recruitment Rambles. Read the original edition on LinkedIn.
